497
FXUS64 KMEG 061742
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TODAY, CONTINUING ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI,
WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE MAJORITY OF TODAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW SKIRTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES. WE ARE ON THE WARM FRONTAL
SIDE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LONG PERIOD OF WAA SHOWERS AND THE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM STARTING TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF FOR THIS PERIOD WILL
FALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI, DRASTICALLY DECREASING WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT AS YOU MOVE NORTH TO THE TN/MS STATE LINE.
REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR QPF (10% CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING) SHOWS ABOUT 3 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK RAINFALL.
WILL NOTE THAT EVEN AFTER THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND CONTINUE TO BRING INTERMITTENT WAVES OF RAIN TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. IT'S FORTUNATE THAT WE'RE NOT WORKING WITH MUCH
OF ANY INSTABILITY AND THERE IS ALMOST NO KINEMATIC SUPPORT GIVEN
OUR POSITIONING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. EXPECT
A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A MESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY OVER TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY, IT WILL ALSO DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH LOOKS TO EXTEND UPWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AS THIS HAPPENS,
WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE DAILY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERALL AN UNSETTLED BUT
NOT IMPACTFUL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CAD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE AROUND 00Z, BEGINNING AT JBR, AS A DECAYING MCS
MOVES IN. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH, MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS BEHIND THE MCS BROUGHT IN BY AN UPPER LOW. THUNDER PROBS
WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SECOND WAVE, THOUGH, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
AND THE LACK THEREOF INSTABILITY AXIS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
OPTED TO NOT PREVAIL THUNDER IN TAFS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SUB 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AEH
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