131
FXUS64 KMEG 062019
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI,
WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
GOES SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RECENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A WARM FRONT
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EXTENDING BACK TO A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS, THEN EXTENDING NORTH UP INTO ARKANSAS.
THE NEAREST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING CAMS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL THE ONSET
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE MID-SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE SUNSET SOUTH OF I-40 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA DAILY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE HALF TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-40 TO 1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE AROUND 00Z, BEGINNING AT JBR, AS A DECAYING MCS
MOVES IN. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH, MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS BEHIND THE MCS BROUGHT IN BY AN UPPER LOW. THUNDER PROBS
WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SECOND WAVE, THOUGH, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
AND THE LACK THEREOF INSTABILITY AXIS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
OPTED TO NOT PREVAIL THUNDER IN TAFS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SUB 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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