528
FXUS64 KMEG 071148
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
648 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI,
WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
NOT NECESSARILY A FORECAST NOTE, BUT WANTED TO POINT OUT AN
INTERESTING METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE THAT OCCURRED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. A BONA FIDE WAKE LOW FORMED SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WINDS TURNED EASTERLY BACK TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND GUSTED
OVER 50 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THESE WAKE LOWS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST AS THEY ARE FAIRLY RARE AND QUICKLY ONSET,
BUT THEY CERTAINLY PACK A PUNCH AS NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND
POWERLINES WERE REPORTED. WINDS ARE DYING DOWN NOW BUT THERE WERE
SEVERAL NORTH MISSISSIPPI OBSERVATION SITES GUSTING IN THE 30-50
MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 10PM TO 3AM, HENCE THE SHORT-LIVED
SPS.
BACK TO THE FORECAST, THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LARGELY BE A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY AND
DISORGANIZED. THE MID-SOUTH IS ESSENTIALLY IN A NO-MAN'S LAND
BETWEEN SYSTEMS, YET THERE IS JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO ENCOURAGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WILL POINT OUT THAT WITH ALL THE RAIN WE'VE SEEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (AND WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON),
VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT
AREAWIDE TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST 00Z AND 06Z VISIBILITY
FIELDS ON THE HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ALREADY HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AREAWIDE, BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF MEMPHIS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS.
CAMS ARE SIMULATING VERY SPORADIC COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ENOUGH WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
ANOTHER CLOSED CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO MATERIALIZE RIGHT OVER THE MID-
SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP US IN THIS COOL, WET
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND POPS
TREND DRIER. LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST TOTALLY
DRY DAY IN OVER A WEEK.
CAD
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A BUSY TAF SET OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. SHRAS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND PICK BACK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL ALSO FALL TO IFR BY LATE MORNING, AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
(40%) CHANCE THAT IFR MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE FOR TSRAS THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS MEDIUM (50% CHANCE)
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE (20%) THAT IT WILL AFFECT
ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE. STUCK WITH VCTS FOR NOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS IN HIGH AGREEMENT (60%) THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, AS WINDS GO CALM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. DECIDED TO GO AS LOW AS 1/2SM TO
3/4SM AT NEARLY ALL SITES, BUT 1/4SM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TAF SET.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page