065
FXUS64 KMEG 072005
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE, WHERE UP TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHOULD KICK OFF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MLCAPE VALUE AROUND 1500
J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT A
MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
NORTH OF I-40. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
ALL IN ALL WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES
WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE TN RIVER INTO
NE MS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEING TO EXIT TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND
DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS
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