575
FXUS64 KMEG 080432
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH 8
AM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE, WHERE UP TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE CLEARED
OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING BEHIND SOME CLEARS SKIES ACROSS THE WEST
AND BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR THE TN RIVER. BIGGEST FORECAST NOTE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. A FEW SITES ACROSS AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL HAVE BEGUN TO DROP, WITH ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS
LIKELY FALLING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
HOVER AROUND THE 2 DEGREE MARK, WITH CLEAR WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY SEE VISIBILITY DROPS FIRST. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. HREF GUIDANCE HAS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 3 MILES, WITH 40-60% PROBS
FOR LESS THAN HALF A MILE. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NEAR TO AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS A CLEARER PICTURE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THE DENSE FOG BECOMES OR IF IT REMAINS ISOLATED.
CMA
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHOULD KICK OFF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MLCAPE VALUE AROUND 1500
J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT A
MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
NORTH OF I-40. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
ALL IN ALL WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES
WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE TN RIVER INTO
NE MS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEING TO EXIT TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND
DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE WILL BE PATCHY
TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY REPORTING LIFR CIGS/VIS, WITH ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AROUND 13Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME QUESTION WITH COVERAGE OF TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE LEFT AS PROB30S FOR NOW. GENERALLY S/SW
WINDS WILL BECOME N AFTER 00Z, REMAINING AROUND TO BELOW 5 KTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA
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