032
FXUS64 KMEG 081203
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 647 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
MOST OF OUR OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
(VISIBILITY < 1/4 MILE) THIS MORNING. EXCESS MOISTURE, LIGHT
WINDS, AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER HAS CREATED THE PERFECT
RADIATION FOG SETUP UNDERNEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 9AM
THIS MORNING. THE EARLY COMMUTE TO WORK/SCHOOL WILL BE HAZARDOUS,
SO ALLOW EXTRA TIME AND TAKE IT SLOW ON THE ROADS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT DOES SO. CAMS SIMULATE A
LONG PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME-LIKE PULSE STORMS TODAY, WHICH MAKES
THE DETAILS OF TIMING A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. WE ARE
CARRYING A 50-60% CHANCE POP TODAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY
RAIN AT ALL JUST DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL PULSE
STORMS. LOOKING AT POINT SOUNDINGS, THERE IS ENOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE) AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER 6 DEG C/KM TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THESE DAMAGING WINDS, IF ANY, WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF MICROBURSTS BECAUSE WE'LL BE WORKING WITH ALMOST NO
SHEAR TO HOLD ANY KIND OF MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BOWING SEGMENTS
TOGETHER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1PM TO
10PM TIME FRAME TODAY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER CLOSED CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO
MATERIALIZE RIGHT OVER THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN THIS COOL, WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND POPS
TREND DRIER. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMAL IS HIGHS NEAR 80F AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60F) FOR MID MAY.
CAD
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION AND SPAWN
SCATTERED -SHRAS AND -TSRAS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS HIGH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW (<40%). SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW CIGS WILL RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3
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