333
FXUS64 KMEG 081725
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH IS DESTABILIZING. SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW TN AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
SEVERE STORM WILL BE ALONG THE TN RIVER AND ACROSS EXTREME NE MS.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE UPPER SUPPORT DOES APPEAR TO
WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HAMPER STORM ORGANIZATION.
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
MOST OF OUR OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
(VISIBILITY < 1/4 MILE) THIS MORNING. EXCESS MOISTURE, LIGHT
WINDS, AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER HAS CREATED THE PERFECT
RADIATION FOG SETUP UNDERNEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 9AM
THIS MORNING. THE EARLY COMMUTE TO WORK/SCHOOL WILL BE HAZARDOUS,
SO ALLOW EXTRA TIME AND TAKE IT SLOW ON THE ROADS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT DOES SO. CAMS SIMULATE A
LONG PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME-LIKE PULSE STORMS TODAY, WHICH MAKES
THE DETAILS OF TIMING A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. WE ARE
CARRYING A 50-60% CHANCE POP TODAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY
RAIN AT ALL JUST DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL PULSE
STORMS. LOOKING AT POINT SOUNDINGS, THERE IS ENOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE) AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER 6 DEG C/KM TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THESE DAMAGING WINDS, IF ANY, WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF MICROBURSTS BECAUSE WE'LL BE WORKING WITH ALMOST NO
SHEAR TO HOLD ANY KIND OF MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BOWING SEGMENTS
TOGETHER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1PM TO
10PM TIME FRAME TODAY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER CLOSED CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO
MATERIALIZE RIGHT OVER THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN THIS COOL, WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND POPS
TREND DRIER. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMAL IS HIGHS NEAR 80F AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60F) FOR MID MAY.
CAD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTINS OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL DRIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS
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