316
FXUS64 KMEG 081935
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- RAIN CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. SBCAPES OF AROUND
2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KTS ARE SUPPORTING A
FEW SEVERE STORMS, SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, EAST OF THE MS RIVER
MINIMAL 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS POINT
TOWARD A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THE HIGHER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO MIDDLE TN. AS A RESULT, STORM INTENSITY SHOULD START TO WANE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALSO AID IN
STORM DISSIPATION. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF WEST TN AND
NORTH MS LATE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DIVE
SOUTH AND REFORM AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY AND COOL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MID-
SOUTH. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH MS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S.
THE GULF COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND SPREAD SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST TIME
PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HEAVY WITH 0.5 TO
1.50 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER 80S
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL DRIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ARS
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