939
FXUS64 KMEG 082349
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- RAIN CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. SBCAPES OF AROUND
2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KTS ARE SUPPORTING A
FEW SEVERE STORMS, SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, EAST OF THE MS RIVER
MINIMAL 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS POINT
TOWARD A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EAST THE HIGHER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO MIDDLE TN. AS A RESULT, STORM INTENSITY SHOULD START TO WANE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALSO AID IN
STORM DISSIPATION. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF WEST TN AND
NORTH MS LATE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DIVE
SOUTH AND REFORM AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY AND COOL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MID-
SOUTH. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH MS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S.
THE GULF COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND SPREAD SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST TIME
PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HEAVY WITH 0.5 TO
1.50 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER 80S
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MEM/MKL/TUP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING MVFR AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. A
PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MKL/TUP
OVERNIGHT ALONG ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, UP TO 25 KTS, WILL IMPROVE CEILINGS BACK
TO VFR AND LIFT FOG SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page