465
FXUS64 KMEG 091715
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- RAIN CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY LATE NEXT WEEK. OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF THE MID-SOUTH. AS THEY GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDS WILL START MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP OVER NORTH MS
WHERE THE SUN IS OUT AND INSTABILITY IS INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE KICKED UP IN THE PAST HOUR TO AROUND 8 MPH. FOG HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, BUT REMAINED LIGHT. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS SURFACE WINDS PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MIXING.
ANY SITES WHERE WINDS STAY CALM COULD SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
DENSE FOG, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS IN THE SHORT
TERM, AS A TROUGH SLOWLY DIVES SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST AND CUTS
OFF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, KEEPING CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY IN THE MID-SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL STALL AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WETTEST
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL PULL AWAY LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.
AC3
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS WILL RETURN TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE NEAR TUP WITH A RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHWEST TOWARDS MEM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDER
CONCERNS REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
24KTS ON SATURDAY.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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