265
FXUS64 KMEG 092341
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-
SOUTH.
- RAIN CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY LATE NEXT WEEK. OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE
CLOUD DECK CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WHERE THE SUN HAS BROKEN OUT. NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED YET ACROSS
NORTH MS YET BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING IN TWO PIECES.
THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY IS HEADED TOWARD THE NE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH THE LOWER MS VALLEY PIECE CUTTING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK
NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND COVER MUCH OF NORTH MS BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND EVENTUALLY THE LOW ITSELF STARTS MOVING NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY HEAVY THOUGH
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 2-3 INCHES ACROSS NE MS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SLOW MOVING. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. MANY PLACES HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE
(45%-65%) OF HITTING 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
AT THE END OF THE WEEK COULD PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS LOW
THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT JBR/MEM/MKL. AN
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO TUP
OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AROUND 18Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT TUP. MEM WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OUT FOR THIS EVENING,
THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
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