835
FXUS64 KMEG 280835
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
335 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 325 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.
- A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH
OF THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE LATEST NQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES A FEW VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AT THIS HOUR AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. VERY
SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL IN
COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS WE SIT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO
SUNRISE, FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH SOME AREAS,
PREDOMINATELY LOW LYING RIVER AREAS, SEEING BRIEF PERIODS OF
DENSE FOG. THOUGH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN A
PRESENT STRATO-CU DECK MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
TODAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY, COMPARATIVE TO THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AS UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. THOUGH, A ROUGE
POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW, HOWEVER, WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH AND TANDEM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS INCREASES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEW POINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE AND AROUND 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A LIMITING FACTOR
TOMORROW WILL BE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND 5.7 C/KM,
LIKELY RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO POP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEY LOOK TO
HAVE MORE OF A SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY BEAUTIFUL WITH
PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A PIECE OF
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY THAT A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD POP OFF OF. STAY
TUNED.. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WORKWEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, LIKELY EDGING INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY MID-WEEK.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A MIX OF CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH LOWEST CIGS AT JBR AND
MEM RIGHT NOW. MEM WILL REMAIN ON THE LINE OF MVFR AND VFR IN THE
SHORT TERM.
LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH MKL AND TUP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW STRAY SHRAS WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAF.
VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT TUP.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...AC3
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