013
FXUS64 KMEG 290502
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1202 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH
OF THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING PREVALENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE
OVERALL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TREND TOWARDS THE
WEAKER END, AND MITIGATING THE OVERALL THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN BECOME SEVERE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MID TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
MESSY TAF PERIOD FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL LIFT NORTH THRU TUP AND
JUST TO THE SE OF MEM OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWER VSBYS ARE
LIKELY AT TUP, BUT NO IMPACTS TO OTHER SITES.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH NEAR I-40 BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
KICK WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRAS
AND TSRAS WILL MOVE ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A VCTS AT WESTERN SITES.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND
POSSIBLY TSRAS JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW CIGS WILL ENSUE.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
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