266
FXUS64 KMEG 300453
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER THE
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT NEAR THE OK/AR/MO STATE LINES, WITH THE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHERN TX. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MATERIALIZE A BIT DEEPER FROM ITS PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT TROUGH STRETCHED A WARM FRONT THAT
CROSSED OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLIER THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN
DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THESE DEWPOINTS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUFFICIENT SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG, WHICH COINCIDE WITH THE MARGINAL RISK. WHILE WE HAVE DECENT
SURFACE INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS ARE
LIMITING FACTORS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6
C/KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 45 KTS.
DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE VERY LOW LCLS WHICH COULD
CAUSE A THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, QUARTER SIZED
HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PWATS ARE AROUND
1.6" WHICH IS AVERAGE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGGRAVATE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAP INTO A STRONGER LLJ,
RESULTING IN A DELAY OF CONVECTION INITIATION OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
SEVERE STORMS COULD START TO FIRE UP AROUND 5 PM AND TRAVEL ESE
ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS THE BEST
PARAMETER TODAY, ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TRENDS COMMENCE, THE SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO CLOSE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TAPER
OFF BY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY SETTLE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER
AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BEAUTIFUL
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A PERTURBATION
OR TWO COULD CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER ON SUNDAY, BUT GIVEN A FEW DAYS OF HIGH PRESSURE,
ACCUMULATION IS NEGLIGIBLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOOKS TO RESULT IN A
PATTERN SHIFT, INTO A MORE SUMMER LIKE REGIME AS A WARMING TREND
KICKS OFF. A DEEP TROUGH LOOKING TO FORM IN THE ROCKIES IS LIKELY
TO RETURN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN SITES WITH
MAINLY SHRAS TO THE SOUTH. MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF
PREVAILING SHRAS AND TSRA.
MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING AT ALL SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 8 AND
12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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