346
FXUS64 KMEG 301117
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE MID-
SOUTH THIS MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED CHANCES (40 TO 60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE MID-SOUTH. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE
TIDBIT FOR THE MID-SOUTH, BUT NONE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES (MEMPHIS,
TUPELO, JACKSON, OR JONESBORO) HAVE REACHED THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE
DAY FOR THE YEAR. THE AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY FOR EACH SITE
TYPICALLY OCCURS IN MID TO LATE MAY, BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL MAKE
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY, AND SO FAR THIS YEAR, WITH NO
90 DEGREE DAYS.
BY SUNDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR ONE SHOT OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS THERE WILL BE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS GET SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE TN RIVER BY THE AFTERNOON. INTO
NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL WAA TO RETURN TO THE MID-
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MAYBE EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS ACROSS NORTH MS ON TUESDAY.
BY THE MIDDLE TO BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THINGS DO APPEAR TO
BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WHILE OTHERS HANG
ONTO A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THUS KEEP US IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. WHAT MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACHING THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR POPS TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE BACK HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BEFORE NOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS
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