835
FXUS64 KMEG 310444
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED CHANCES (50 TO 70%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
A TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS SINCE SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING, BRINGING NOTICEABLY COLDER, DRIER AIR TO THE MIDSOUTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
80 F. TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AS TODAY'S NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH.
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN RECENT
GUIDANCE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS APPEAR NEBULOUS ACROSS THE REGION,
SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE TROUGH'S FORCING IS. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
AND SHALLOW, SO THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH NO SEVERE
RISK. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNSET WITH
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TO START NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND TODAY'S COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST, OPENING UP RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF.
NBM MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OFFERING MUCH OF THE SAME.
DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO GUIDANCE BY LATE-WEEK REGARDING
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT. LREF GUIDANCE HAS THE MAJORITY OF
MEMBERS ABOVE 80 F THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A FEW DO SKIRT DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S WHERE THE FRONT DOES PASS. SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE REGARDLESS AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM A
DAMPENING UPPER RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY
TO END OUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WEAK W/NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MAY SEE
AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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