861
FXUS64 KMEG 311708
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 80S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CURRENTLY, A QUIET EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DESPITE CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE REMAINED
HIGH ENOUGH TO HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER COULD SEE THIS OVERCOME CLOSE TO
SUNRISE, SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DON'T THINK YOU
CAN ASK FOR ANYTHING BETTER TO END THE MONTH OF MAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 50S. INTO TOMORROW, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GREAT DAY FOR MOST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S, DO THINK WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES (30%) WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS WEST TN, BUT WILL CARRY 15-20% POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AIDING TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. WITH THESE DRIER CONDITIONS, DO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE A
NOTABLE SHIFT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE
RIDGE PATTERN DRIFTS EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN, ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL TAKE
PLACE IS STILL IN QUESTION. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW
DOWN THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, KEEPING MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN THIRD ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST TAKES LONGER TO BREAK DOWN, THINK WE
WILL STAY DRIER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IF THIS
BREAKDOWN OCCURS EARLIER, COULD SEE POPS RISE AROUND MIDWEEK.
NONETHELESS, THIS BREAKDOWN LOOKS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH POPS INCREASING ON THURSDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES APPEAR LIKELY TO END
THE WEEK, KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4-
7KTS. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AROUND
25,000FT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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