579
FXUS64 KMEG 010723
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
223 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
ANOTHER QUIET EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
SPANNING THE LOW 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAVE REPORTED PATCHY FOG, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. ANY ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT FOLLOWING SUNRISE. A DECAYING MCS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OZARKS REGION, WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOST CAMS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF
POPS. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THROUGH ABOUT MID-
MORNING THOUGH, WITH CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPEAKING OF THE
AFTERNOON, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY,
BUT HAVE INCLUDED 20 TO 30% POPS MAINLY ACROSS WEST TN, MO
BOOTHEEL, AND EXTREME NE AR. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE, MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME DRY AIR THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME.
AS SUCH, MENTIONING BECAUSE IT WON'T BE A COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR
EVERYONE, BUT WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY,
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE IT WILL STALL. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR THIS
BOUNDARY TO STALL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MID-SOUTH, LIKELY
LEAVING AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL THURSDAY.
WILL CARRY SCATTERED POPS (30-40%) FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NOW, BUT THIS COULD BE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS. BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. NOTHING IS JUMPING OUT IN TERMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, GENERALLY SPANNING THE 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECAYING MCSS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO
THE AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. POINT SOUNDINGS FOR MEM AND
THE SURROUNDING TAF SITES DEPICT RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS, WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE CAMS QUICKLY DROPPING
ANY PRECIP OFF IN THE MID MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANYTHING REACHES MEM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECONDARY MCS MAY HOLD
TOGETHER OVER MKL AFTER 00Z MON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN
THIS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD
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