276
FXUS64 KMEG 012339
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AMIDST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION, WITH SOME SHOWERS FORMING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY REMAIN LOW
(20-30%) THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THANKS TO MINIMAL
UPPER FORCING AND MLCIN. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWER FORMATION
WILL BE ALONG A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY WHERE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FIND THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW AGITATED CU ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT COULD INDICATE LOWER MLCIN THAN
ANTICIPATED AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AWAY
FROM THE FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BACK TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
NBM/HREF ARE BOTH CONFIDENT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TOMORROW, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS RETAINED BY THE NBM TUESDAY. A
FEW AREAS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD MAKE A RUN AT THEIR FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING AND/OR NEUTRAL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT BAY
DURING THIS TIME.
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO ERODE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES AND SPEED MAXIMA EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES. INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO BRING THE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MOST
GUIDANCE STALLS THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH
MISSOURI WITH HIGHER RAIN POTENTIAL STILL OFF TO OUR WEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE THIS BOUNDARY INTO NE ARKANSAS
THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS ANOTHER UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERY/STORMY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN LATE SPRING, THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASES AS WELL. UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
FORCING IS TOO WEAK FOR ANY CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
UPPER WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN
COMBINATION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ARE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH COULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN, ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ONLY REACH UP TO 1-2"
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND WEST
TENNESSEE. GIVEN THIS PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER SEVERAL DAYS, THE
THREAT OF FLOODING APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO
STAY WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG
IS LIKELY AT TUP LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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