692
FXUS64 KMEG 021113
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, TUESDAY, AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
ANOTHER QUIET EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH MS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH SUNRISE. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE TN RIVER AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS
WELL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT FOLLOWING
SUNRISE. OVERALL, A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO START THIS
WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW, KEEPING THE MID-SOUTH DRY. WILL MENTION
THAT SOME LINGERING HAZINESS SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S TODAY AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MS REACHING 90
TOMORROW.
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S., WITH A TREND TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH. WEDNESDAY DOES STILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION MARK, WITH GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO PLACE AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
WEST OF THE MID-SOUTH, THOUGH THE LOCATION WILL DRIVE IF WE REMAIN
DRY OR NOT WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, BUT WOULD SAY MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE MS RIVER SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THAT IS STILL LOW GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY EACH DAY, DO THINK
THE LACK OF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HINDER ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS, MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND
CLOUDINESS, EXPECT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DIP A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT REMAIN IN THE 80S.
BEYOND SATURDAY, WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS
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