971
FXUS64 KMEG 250704
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
204 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 204 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
DAY, BUT PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A WARM NIGHT IS UNDERWAY AS OF 2 AM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH IS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES DUE TO A LARGE AND INTENSE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY AT 9 PM.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DUE TO THE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK,
SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (1.50- 1.75"),
BUT THAT IS ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWER TO BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCER.
WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST IS A RINSE AND REPEAT, THIS WEEKEND
STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF COAST COULD DAMPEN AND DEVIATE THE RIDGE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAVOR THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE ARKLATEX REGION RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES FINALLY
FOLLOWING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LREF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HOWEVER, SUGGESTS THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIDGE, KEEPING THIS PERSISTENCE FORECAST GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME A BIT CLEARER ONCE HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE, SO STAY TUNED.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DEEP TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BE THE FIRST SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A BRIEF COOLDOWN IN OVER A WEEK. DETAILS
REMAIN TOO MURKY FOR ANY SPECIFICS, BUT THERE MAY BE A GLINT OF
RELIEF ON THE HORIZON.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
HI RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 6SM
(PROBABILITY OF SURFACE VSBY < 6SM IS LESS THAN 20%) SO OPTED NOT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH AN
AFTERNOON CU FIELD, ISOLATED TS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AFTER 18Z, AND
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50%. WHILE
WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY, LIGHT 20FT WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CAD
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