470
FXUS64 KMEG 252316
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
616 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
DAY, BUT PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THIS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK DUE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. WE'LL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACCOMPANIED
BY TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AS SUCH, A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE. THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION
ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO COME BACK DOWN BELOW 105 DEGREES (WHICH IS THE
CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY) SATURDAY SO HELD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT
AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER ARE UNDER AN EXTREME HEATRISK TODAY,
TOMORROW, AND FRIDAY. THIS CATEGORY OF NWS HEATRISK ENTAILS RARE
AND/OR LONG DURATION EXTREME HEAT WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT
RELIEF, AFFECTING ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE
HYDRATION.
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, CONTINUOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE IS FUNNELING IN JUST ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO ALLOW
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEK. ADDED A 15% POP TODAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BASED ON
PERSISTENCE FORECASTING, ALL OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF NEARLY
STATIONARY SINGLE CELL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OUR LACK OF
KINEMATIC SUPPORT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAY SEE SOME TALLER/STRONGER
STORMS DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES, BUT AGAIN, MOSTLY
MICROBURST TYPE CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
DRIFT INLAND FROM THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL MARK A
TRANSITION TO A COOLER (BARELY) AND WETTER PATTERN. DESPITE THE
INCREASE TO 60%+ CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL TRAP WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE MID-SOUTH
AND UNFORTUNATELY KEEP TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 90
DEGREES. NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST DAY IN QUITE A WHILE
WITH SUB-100 HEAT INDICES AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, SO RELIEF MAY
ACTUALLY BE ON THE WAY.
CAD
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITHIN THIS ISSUANCE. VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND MEM/JBR THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. VFR WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND TUP TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50%. WHILE
WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY, LIGHT 20FT WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JAB
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