384
FXUS64 KMEG 260739
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
239 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
DAY. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
YET ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS UNDERWAY AS OF 2 AM WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (WITH MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL STILL AT 80
DEGREES), WHICH IS NEAR WHAT TEMPERATURES WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES DUE TO A LARGE AND INTENSE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AT
9 PM.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY. SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
IS LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT STEEPER WHICH RESULTED IN A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK OF A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE LIMITING
FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS SHEAR. UPPER RIDGING ALOFT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
REALLY SQUASHES SHEAR, BUT CAMS LOOK TO SHOW SOME SORT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BEING ABLE TO SPARK CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 2-4 PM. IF
A STRONG STORM CAN GET GOING, DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE CONCERN WITH
THIS MICROBURST TYPE CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (1.50- 1.75"), BUT THAT IS
ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWER TO BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER.
WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST IS A RINSE AND REPEAT, THIS WEEKEND
STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF COAST ON TRACK TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL ATTEMPT TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST REGIME AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CHURNS. THIS LOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DRASTIC RELIEF. THERE IS NOT MUCH
RELIEF IN A 5 MB DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WEAKENING. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES MAY DROP BELOW 105 (WHICH IS ADVISORY CRITERIA), BUT HEAT
INDICES STILL COULD BE TRIPLE DIGITS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL DO NOT LOOK TO DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH CAN STILL RISK HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE HEAT INDICES DROP BELOW 105 IS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST STILL AT RISK. THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGES.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DEEP TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BE THE FIRST SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A BRIEF COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS REMAIN TOO MURKY FOR ANY SPECIFICS, BUT THERE MAY BE A GLINT
OF RELIEF ON THE HORIZON.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW, SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT REGARDING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THEREFORE, HAVE INTRODUCED
PROB30S TO MEM/MKL WHILE RETAINING THE ONE FOR TUP. STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR RETURNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50%. WHILE
WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY, LIGHT 20FT WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB
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