803  
FXUS64 KMEG 262327  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
627 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WORK WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE UNTIL  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH  
DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
REX BLOCKING CONTINUES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES WESTWARD ALONG  
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT DOME OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.  
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE  
REGION THIS MORNING, BRINGING COOLER AIR AND SOME CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT BAY SO  
FAR TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOCATIONS  
THAT EXPERIENCE 100+ HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER, NO CHANGES WERE MADE  
TO THE HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE  
AND THE EXPECTATION FOR 100+ HEAT INDICES AREA WIDE TOMORROW.  
 
IN THE MEANTIME THIS AFTERNOON, STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO  
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN  
W TN AND E AR. MLCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG IN COMBINATION WITH  
WEAK TO NONEXISTENT SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PULSE MODE THUNDERSTORMS  
CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR HYBRID MICROBURSTS. THUNDERSTORM  
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE CHANCE FOR  
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EATING AWAY AT THE RIDGING  
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. A MEAGER DECREASE IN 500 MB  
HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED, BUT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MEANINGFULLY  
CHANGE THE PREVAILING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM HOT TO COOL.  
INSTEAD, A NET COOLING OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH HEAT  
INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 100 WITH HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE WITHIN  
THE MS RIVER DELTA. NO ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WERE ADDED FOR  
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED IN UPCOMING  
FORECAST PERIODS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.  
SCATTERED, PULSE- LIKE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED  
CONCERNS FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER NEXT WEEK, AS OPPOSED TO THE  
AMPLIFIED RIDGING PRESENT NOW. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN BELT OF  
WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONGSIDE A FEW TROPICAL  
PERTURBATIONS IN THE GULF. THEREFORE, MONDAY'S HEAT INDICES WILL  
ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKENDS. ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE AMPLIFY  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, WHICH IN  
TURN STRENGTHENS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANY OTHER  
TIME OF THE YEAR THIS WOULD NORMALLY BE LINKED TO A FRONTAL  
PASSAGE, BUT NEITHER MODEL SEEMS KEEN ON TAKING A FRONT AS FAR  
SOUTH AS TN AND AR, LET ALONE MS. SO, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT  
THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OR STALL BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO  
OUR LATITUDE TUESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS  
TO SHOW. HIGHS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S  
WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 90 - 100 F THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE  
DISSIPATING WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THERE  
IS LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT MKL FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO  
12Z. RINSE AND REPEAT ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OUTSIDE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS, A DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL  
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS. PROB30 GROUPS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR  
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025  
 
HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UNLIKELY TO DROP BELOW 40%. THIS, IN  
COMBINATION WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS, PRECLUDES AND CONCERNS FOR  
FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, HEAT HEADLINES WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MORE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-  
036-048-049-058.  
 
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-115.  
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.  
 
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-  
048>055-088>092.  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB  
AVIATION...MJ  
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