839
FXUS64 KMEG 271805
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
105 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE UNTIL 9
PM TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
YET ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS UNDERWAY AS OF 3 AM WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S, BUT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY DUE TO INTENSE
RIDGING. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY AT 9 PM.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT FOR SEVERAL DAYS REALLY SQUASHES SHEAR, BUT CAMS
LOOK TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IF
A STORM CAN GROW, GUSTY WINDS ARE THE CONCERN WITH THIS
MICROBURST/PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (1.50- 1.75"), BUT THAT IS
ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWER TO BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL TRACK TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SLOWLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST REGIME AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CHURNS. THIS LOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DRASTIC RELIEF. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
MAY DROP BELOW 105 (WHICH IS ADVISORY CRITERIA), BUT HEAT INDICES
STILL COULD BE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL DO NOT LOOK TO DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH CAN STILL RISK HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE HEAT INDICES DROP BELOW 105 IS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST STILL AT RISK. THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGES. BUT
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DEEP TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, STRETCHING A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SHOT
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A BRIEF COOLDOWN. PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING AN INCH OF RAINFALL DO NOT RISE ABOVE 50% UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF JUNE AND TO KICK OFF JULY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES HOVERING AROUND 100
DEGREES OR LESS.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE HIGHER CHANCES (UP
TO 50 PERCENT COVERAGE). WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50%. WHILE
WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY, LIGHT 20FT WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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