277
FXUS64 KMEG 282032
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A MUCH MORE SEASONAL DAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES HOVERING IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE LATEST RADAR SCAN SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION OVER WEST TENNESSEE. THE
CONCERN FOR BOUTS OF FLOODING REMAINS ELEVATED (>30%) FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS (99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND SLOW STORM MOTION (EASTERLY
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS) REMAINS IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF ANY FLOODING,
PULSE-TYPE STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST BEYOND SUNDOWN THIS EVENING
AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE AND A FEW COLD POOLS
INTERACT. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ANCHORED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSITING
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 60
RANGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (40 TO 60 POPS) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-40 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES AT A FEW LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW AND AIR
TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER HOT AND HUMID WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES RETURNING. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME.
AC3
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE
PAST HOUR, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS, DIMINISHING LATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT TUP
SUNDAY AFTER 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS RAIN CHANCES AND
HUMIDITY REMAIN HIGH. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY LATE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK UP.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...MJ
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