595
FXUS64 KMEG 292342 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- HIGH HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE, AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<30%) OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE A FEW DAYS OF HEAT RELIEF THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE HEAT BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE LATEST RADAR SCAN.
THE LATEST GOES EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CU FIELD
DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SE
MO. THE INSTABILITY FIELD VARIES GREATLY FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER MUCH OF WEST TN AND TO UP 3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ACROSS EASTERN AR AND NORTH MS. WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
ONCE AGAIN (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) ACROSS THE REGION, SO WET
MICROBURSTS AND SINGLE CELL CONVECTION IS FAVORED. THE AREA
FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER EASTERN
AR, SOUTHWEST TN, AND NORTHWEST MS, OR WHERE THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE EXIST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING
(~30% CHANCE) OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST AR AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, OR NEAR A SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE SHORT
TERM. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR
OR SO AFTER SUNDOWN WITH MAINLY BENIGN WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FOR MONDAY. A NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH, MOISTURE
WILL POOL WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES AREAWIDE, OR ABOVE
THE 97TH PERCENTILE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ESPECIALLY
ENHANCED, AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL SWELL
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 105F OR
GREATER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MS, EASTERN AR, AND SOUTHWEST TN FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND
108F.
THE LARGEST CHANGE FOR MONDAY IS THE EXPANSION OF A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CHARACTERIZED BY
3000-4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OR WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AS HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON THE TIMING AN EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TOMORROW. IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING, PLENTY OF FUEL WILL BE AVAILABLE ON
HAND FOR ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE
PREDICTABLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FIRST ROUND.
KINEMATICS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO, WITH
UP TO 25 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR ON HAND COMPARED TO THE WEAK 10 KNOTS
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW
100 DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
HEAT WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE 4TH OF JULY,
AS A 591 DAM RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NBM
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AREAWIDE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TSRA DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MO. JBR SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET, GIVEN THE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP MEM IN THE CLEAR FOR THE EVENING, BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. TSRA AT TUP SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SUNSET.
SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY, WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE HEAT OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
18Z HRRR DEPICTS A COMPLEX OF TSRA DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN AR NEAR THE END OF THE MONDAY EVENING INBOUND PUSH AT MEM.
THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE OTHER CAMS. HOPEFULLY THE
00Z CAMS WILL PROVIDE MORE CLARITY.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HEAT
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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