661
FXUS64 KMEG 300833
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- HIGH HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE, AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<30%) OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE A FEW DAYS OF HEAT RELIEF THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE HEAT BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
CURRENTLY...A QUIET MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RETREAT A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID-SOUTH IS ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS TODAY LOOKS WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED
AS DEWPOINTS POOL ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL THE RAIN
LATELY WILL ONLY HELP INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TODAY. ON TOP OF
THAT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING WHICH WILL
GIVE SOME TIME FOR SURFACE HEATING TO INCREASE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 90S OVER A GOOD DEAL OF THE REGION. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED INTO CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES AND NOW COVERS EAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO FOCUSING ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER
THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH AR, SE MO AND WESTERN KY LATER TODAY.
THESE CLUSTERS WILL PUSH SE DURING THE EVENING. A GOOD DEAL OF
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 20-25 KTS SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
A LITTLE MORE THAN RECENT DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
IN ANY ONE PLACE FROM GETTING TOO EXTREME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY SURFACE
HEATING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MS. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. WE SHOULD SEE
A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS WED AND THU WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES NO TIME TO START REBUILDING OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY AND MID
90S BY THE WEEKEND. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THIS
WEEKEND. MEAN RH VALUES DROP OFF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS SO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION LOOKS SPARSE UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ISOLATED TSRA APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST MS, AROUND TUP BASED ON EXPECTED POSITION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STILL SUFFICIENT COVERAGE AROUND THE OTHER TAF SITES
TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
00Z HRRR MAINTAINED EARLIER DEPICTION OF TSRA ARRIVING TO MEM
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONDAY EVENING INBOUND PUSH. 00Z HREF
CONSENSUS SHOWED LESS OF A SIGNAL, SO WILL LIMIT THE LATE MONDAY
EVENING MENTION OF TSRA AT MEM TO A PROB30.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HEAT
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ009-018.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TNZ048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...PWB
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