903
FXUS64 KMEG 010549
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT.
- THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHEAST.
- THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE A COUPLE DAYS OF HEAT RELIEF WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED UP OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
WEAK MICROBURSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY, BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT HAS BEEN LOW. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION RIGHT NOW IS THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
SHEAR. BULK SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE MORE IMMEDIATE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE INSTANCES OF FLOODING, AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRECIPITATION LOADED
WITH AREAWIDE PWATS OF 2.1 OR GREATER, WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A LEADING, BUT WEAK, SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS RIGHT NOW AND FIRING UP ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS. AT THE
SURFACE, A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CHICAGO AND BACK INTO KANSAS CITY. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TAKE
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST AR, WILL
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY MOVING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE (<30%) OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS UP TO 25 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MAINLY
WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONAL, SO STORM MODE WILL BE MOSTLY MESSY MULTI-
CELLS AND SPLITTERS. IF ANY COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND TAP INTO
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID FLOW, A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE (<20% CHANCE).
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID-SOUTH. THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CHANCE (<20%)
OF A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM...THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE A DECENT BREAK FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS TO A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 90S. A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL ONLY WARRANT A 10 POP AT BEST. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A 591 DAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE ARKLATEX.
AC3
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
LEADING EDGE OF BROKEN TSRA LINE WAS JUST NORTH OF MEM AT 0545Z.
THE LEADING EDGE WILL PASS THROUGH BY 0630Z OR SO, WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LINE THROUGH 0730Z.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT, WITH SUFFICIENT
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TSRA AT TUP. FOR TUESDAY, TUP WILL SEE A
SECONDARY PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TSRA, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDSOUTH TAF SITES CATCH A BREAK FROM STORMS.
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING MEM INBOUND
PUSH.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. WETTING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-
SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 45% OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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