267
FXUS64 KMEG 090839
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
339 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 314 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF
THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
ANOTHER TYPICAL MUGGY, SUMMERTIME OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS PRESENT WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AS AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK BUILDS IN OVER THE MID-
SOUTH. A PRESENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALONG ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
AND CALM WINDS HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL SITES FOGGING. AS WE EDGE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE, FOG WILL LIKELY SPREAD WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, THOUGH, DENSE FOG (1/4 SM) IS NOT EXPECTED. FOG
SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
OCCURS. THE LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INDICATES A FEW
STRATIFORM SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LIFT
FROM A POSITIVELY TILED TROUGH CURRENTLY FIXATED OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOVING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, STRATIFORM SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL HEIGHTEN AS WE REMAIN IN THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND A VERY WEATHER INSTABILITY
AXIS THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THOUGH, WE ARE LOOKING AT A RINSE AND REPEAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS REMAIN UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES, NEARING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE BY SUNSET AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MORE RINSE AND REPEAT DAYS AS THE
EVERPRESENT 596 DAM RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY EAST, PUSHING ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PWATS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DECREASED COMPARED TO TODAY, UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES,
NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
BY SATURDAY, THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA AS
UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FALLS OVER THE REGION. THOUGH,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES GIVE LIFT TO SAID STORMS. COME SUNDAY
MORNING, A PRETTY STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE
GULF, LEAVING THE MID-SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. FORECAST
PWATS WILL REMAIN UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. IN COMBINATION WITH A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
DAYTIME HEATING, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
REMAIN. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF
STATES, NEXT WEEK WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FALLING TO <50%. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED HEADING INTO NEXT WORKWEEK, THOUGH HEADLINES WILL BE RE-
EVALUATED ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS -SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR SUNUP, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO ADD TO MEM AT THIS TIME.
TSRAS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PROB30S WERE ADDED TO MEM,
MKL, AND TUP. TSRAS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 10/00Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN AT A MINIMUM AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN
GREATER THAN 50%. WETTING RAIN WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON AS
WE REMAIN IN THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...99
AVIATION...99
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