488
FXUS64 KMEG 222322
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO
115.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
IMPACTS FROM THIS HEATWAVE ARE BEGINNING TO COMPOUND AND BE FELT
EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHERE APPARENT OR "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES BARELY DIP BELOW 80 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALL
DUE TO A 594 DAM MIDLEVEL RIDGE THAT IS PARKED OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. HREF/LREF 500 MB HEIGHTS DEPICT THE BUBBLE OF 594
DAM JUST GRADUALLY ROTATING ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, REACHING ITS PEAK AMPLIFICATION
TOMORROW. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE AREAWIDE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
TOMORROW; FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ARE PUSHING 110 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS THE KIND OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT THAT
AFFECTS EVERYONE, NOT JUST VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. STAY AHEAD OF
THE HEAT BY HYDRATING EARLY AND OFTEN, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE AC, AND AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE DAY.
DESPITE A VERY AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE, THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE TO WARRANT 20-30% POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS EACH DAY THIS WEEK DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE SPORADIC AND ISOLATED
NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION LIKE THIS DOES LITTLE TO NOTHING
TO RELIEVE THE HEAT STRESS ON THE AREA. RELIEF WILL BE LOCALIZED
AND VERY SHORT-LIVED WITH SINGLE CELLED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE'LL BE STUCK IN THIS HOT PATTERN AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE HEAVY ON
THE RIDGING THROUGH DAY 7, BUT DO APPEAR TO AT LEAST BECOME A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS DOESN'T MEAN THE HEAT IS GOING AWAY BY ANY MEANS, BUT IT IS
AT LEAST A SIGN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY ENOUGH
FOR THE HEAT TO BE MORE SEASONABLE FOR LATE JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES ALOFT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AIRSPACE.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THIS WEEK AS
MINRH VALUES HOVER AROUND 50% EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
VERY SPORADIC RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>005-
007-008-010>012-020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ006-009-013>017-
021>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ANS
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