182
FXUS64 KMEG 231117
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL OF
THE MIDSOUTH.
- ADDITIONAL EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND OR HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 115.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
TEMPERATURES AS OF 11 PM WERE STILL ABOVE 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH. MOST OF US WILL SEE SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE
MEMPHIS METRO MAY NOT FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES. A 594 DAM RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN FACTOR INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 596 DAM THIS EVENING
BEFORE IS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AFTER MIDWEEK. IMPACTS FROM THE
CURRENT HEATWAVE ARE BEGINNING TO COMPOUND AND BE FELT EVEN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHERE APPARENT OR "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES BARELY DIP BELOW 80 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, TODAY
SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST DAY, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND
PEAK HEAT INDICES AFTERNOON BETWEEN 108 AND 114 DEGREES. STAY
AHEAD OF THE HEAT BY HYDRATING EARLY AND OFTEN, TAKING FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE AC, AND AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.
NBM PROBABILITIES TODAY ARE AT OR ABOVE 50% TO BE AT OF ABOVE 100
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE, NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI EAST ARKANSAS. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TODAY. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH RELIEF. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY SHIFT CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST, BUT 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES DON'T DECREASE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND (FROM 582 TO
580 DAM). THE GOOD NEWS IS, NOT HAVING THE RIDGE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD SHOULD FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL. POPS TREND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN
ABOUT 25-35% COVERAGE. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE IN WEST TENNESSEE ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND IN
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
12/SIRMON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ANY TAFS WITHIN THIS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. CU IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 50% EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE VERY SPORADIC
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB
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