178
FXUS64 KMEG 232317
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND OR HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 115.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
A HOT AND HUMID DAY ALREADY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 111 AT THE NOON HOUR WEDNESDAY. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST RADAR SWEEP REVEALS A QUASI-
STATIONARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE WEST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE OUTFLOW. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (<15%) THAT THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAKE IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED 10 POPS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BUMPED POPS UP
TO AROUND 25 NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDOWN WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE 110 AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER THE HEAT INDICES BELOW 110
AND DROP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BACK DOWN TO A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS IS REALLY JUST A MATTER
OF SEMANTICS, AS THIS IS THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF HEAT HEADLINES
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND IMPACTS WILL STILL BE FELT. AS MANY
OF YOU FOLKS KNOW, HEAT IMPACTS ARE CUMULATIVE AND HEAT INDICES
ABOVE 105 WILL PROVIDE NO RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT. FOR THE
REST OF THE MID-SOUTH, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 8PM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY DAMPEN THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH IMPINGING UPON IT. THIS MAY KNOCK HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP US UNDER THE
110 THRESHOLD OF EXTREME HEAT. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW WEAKNESSES IN
THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
THE HEAT WILL CRANK BACK UP TO VERY DANGEROUS LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD UP TO 597 DAM. EARLY ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
PROJECT HIGH PROBABILITIES (>80%) OF HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105
AND A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (>20%) OF EXCEEDING 110 AGAIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS, THIS NEARLY 2 WEEK HEAT WAVE
COULD PROVE DEADLY AS THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CONTINUE TO ADD UP.
WILL BEEF UP HEAT AND SAFETY MESSAGING AND ESPECIALLY STRESS THAT
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS ARE LIKELY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT.
THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON AS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH
WOULD IN PART INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO POP-UP NEAR MKL
THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AND LIGHT, VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, WETTING RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW EACH DAY, AS ONLY ISOLATED TO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ001>003-007-
008-010>012-020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ004>006-
009-013>017-021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ004>006-009-013>017-
021>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>021-048>054-088>090.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ022-055-
091-092.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ022-055-091-092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page