817
FXUS64 KMEG 241205
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
705 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 705 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LITTLE RELIEF WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND OR HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 NEAR 110 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE STILL IN THE 90S
AT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH MOST OF THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. MOST OF US WILL SEE SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE MEMPHIS
METRO MAY NOT FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES. THE 596 DAM RIDGE WHICH HAS
BEEN PLAGUING US FOR A WEEK OR SO REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER. HOWEVER, THOSE LOCATIONS ARE STILL INCLUDED IN A
HEAT ADVISORY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 103 AND 114
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STAY AHEAD OF
THE HEAT BY HYDRATING EARLY AND OFTEN, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE AC, AND AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE DAY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
BACK OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOK JUST AS
HOT, IF NOT A BIT HOTTER AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND OR HEAT ADVISORIES.
UNFORTUNATELY, WE DON'T REALLY SEE ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE ABOUT
30% OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
12/SIRMON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITHIN THIS ISSUANCE. VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
A STRONG RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH VALUES WILL
BE AROUND IN THE MID 50'S TO AROUND 60% EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL
PROVIDE VERY SPORADIC RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>003-
007-008-010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ004>006-009-
013>017-021>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>021-048>054-088>090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ022-055-091-092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB
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