904
FXUS64 KMEG 241800
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LITTLE RELIEF WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXTREME HEAT WILL RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES. NEARLY EVERY LOCATION ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH "FEELS LIKE" 100 DEGREES OR HOTTER AT 12PM. THE LATEST GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DENSER CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH SOME AGITATED CU ALONG CROWLEY'S RIDGE. A FEW SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ON RADAR IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE REMAINS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK AT
105F OR HIGHER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTREME HEAT WILL TAKE A "PASSENGER SEAT" TO ELEVATED HEAT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER POPS
WIN OUT. HOWEVER, HEAT RISK WILL STILL REMAIN MODERATE
(2/4) TO MAJOR (3/4) ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DUE TO THE COMPOUNDING
EFFECTS OF 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. AS SUCH, AN
AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAY NOT FALL BELOW
80 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AGAIN, PROVIDING VERY LITTLE RELIEF.
SUNDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AND COULD REACH MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEAT LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTH MS.
EXTREME HEAT WILL RAMP BACK UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A 598 DAM
RIDGE BUILDS UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A WEAKNESS SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGE, WHICH COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NONETHELESS, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AND HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED THE 110F MARK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND FINALLY BREAK UP THE HEAT WAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.
AC3
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS JBR/MEM/MKL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TUP WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING WITH
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE. BOTH THIS AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
MKL/MEM/TUP COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL IN TAF AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUB 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>003-
007-008-010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MSZ001>003-007-008-010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ004>006-009-013>017-
021>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>021-048>054-088>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>021-048>054-088>090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ022-055-091-092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page