581
FXUS64 KMEG 250405
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND. EXTREME
HEAT WILL RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR A FEW AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT ISN'T
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE MEMPHIS-METRO AND DELTA AREAS COULD
HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES. GUIDANCES HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT STILL BELOW ABOUT 35%. HOWEVER, HEAT REMAINS THE
BIGGEST STORY IN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DUE TO 10+ CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF INTENSE HEAT, THE HEAT RISK REMAINS REMAINS MODERATE (2/4)
TO MAJOR (3/4) ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS SUCH, ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY.
EXTREME HEAT(HEAT INDEX EQUAL OR GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES) IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOK JUST AS
HOT, IF NOT A BIT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
I WOULDN'T HOLD MY BREATH, BECAUSE THESE PATTERNS ARE TYPICALLY
SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THAN MODELS PREDICT, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AFTER MID WEEK. IF THAT
VERIFIES, WE SHOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, IF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS CORRECT, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN
IN (WHAT WILL BE) ABOUT 2 WEEKS. IS AUGUST GOING TO BE COOLER THAN
JULY? WE CAN HOPE.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AIRSPACE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO TUP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH
VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MIDMORNING AMIDST A WIDESPREAD CU
FIELD. DESPITE GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW, LARGE
SPATIAL DISPARITIES AND LOW PROBABILITIES (<30%) WILL CURB TS
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. MINIMUM
RH'S WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S TODAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS
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