085
FXUS64 KMEG 251736
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAT INDICES 105 AND ABOVE.
- AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW FROM 11AM THROUGH 9PM.
EXTREME HEAT WILL RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO NEXT WORKWEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
OUR CONTINUOUS HEAT WAVE REMAINS AS A 596DAM RIDGE, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA EAST COAST, CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN. CURRENT HEAT INDICES, AS OF 12PM, ARE
LARGELY IN THE LOW 100S AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, AT AND IN
EXCESS OF 105F, AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
SUCH A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A
FEW POP-UP, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO PRESENT
THEMSELVES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PROVIDE VERY BRIEF RELIEF FROM HEAT IN AREAS
MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
LUCKILY, WE DO REMAIN IN THE PASSENGER SEAT FROM EXTREME HEAT
THROUGH TOMORROW, THOUGH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F WILL BE
IMMINENT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE HAS IS LARGELY EAST OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME, GULF MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO CREEP INTO MID-
SOUTH, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. THOUGH, RAINFALL
WILL BE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS QPF TOTALS ONLY EQUATE TO
ABOUT 1/2 AN INCH. EXTREME HEAT IS SADLY WAITING AT OUR DOORSTEP
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED 596DAM RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN GREATLY
BACK OVER OUR PORTION OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MID-SOUTH
BACK INTO MAJOR TO EVEN EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR SUNDAY. AS WE EDGE
INTO THE WORKWEEK, THIS SAME RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN, BRINGING THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT BACK TO OUR AREA WITH DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
IN THE UPPER 90S TO MAYBE EVEN THE LOW 100S BY TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE RESULTING
IN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 109F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. BOTTOM LINE, HEAT HEADLINES ARE HERE TO STAY. PROLONGED
HEAT IMPACTS (~3 WEEK) WILL LEAD TO COMPOUND EFFECTS NEXT WEEK AS
INDICES PEAK BY MID-WEEK, AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO 598DAM. WE
CANNOT CAUTION ENOUGH TO PLEASE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT, WEARING LOOSE AND LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING, AND DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
DEAMPLIFY BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A "COLD FRONT" EDGES
INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED RAINFALL AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE QUASI-ZONAL BY LATE THURSDAY.
SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD TO? THE LATEST CPC 8-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK HAS US LEANING BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MONTH OF
AUGUST.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS NEXT CYCLE OF TAFS. LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND 900 MB RESULTING IN
CLOUD COVERAGE WANTING TO HANG INTO A BKN DECK AS OPPOSED TO SCT.
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO THIS, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON PERSISTENCE. CONTINUING THE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME VERY SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AS SUCH FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM OVER THE SAME PERIOD AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE 50%. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>003-019-
020-048>051-088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM
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