424
FXUS64 KMEG 110325
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1025 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 100S BY MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, PEAKING IN
THE 40 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
ANOTHER PLEASANT OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS CURRENTLY. AS A HIGH-LEVEL
OVERVIEW OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST, A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DOES LOOK PROBABLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. INTO MONDAY, A LINGERING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN,
BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING THE MID-SOUTH WITH ONE MORE DAY OF MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON, COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY ISOLATED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 90S. BY TUESDAY, A VERY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE RETURN FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES BEGINNING TO CLIMB BACK OVER 100 AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE EACH DAY. THE CAVEAT OF THE HEAT
INDEX VERSUS THUNDERSTORM BATTLE WILL BE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD
REACH BACK INTO THE LOW 100S, MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE OF 105S, BY
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOONS. NBM GUIDANCE HAS POPS GENERALLY MAXING
OUT IN THE 40% TO 70% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MS
ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS HEAT INDICES GO, IF ANYWHERE WERE TO
REACH THE 105 MARK BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IT WOULD LIKELY BE
THE MS DELTA AND A SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN AR, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
CREEPING BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A RE-
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. LEANING
TOWARDS A DRIER AND THEREFORE HOTTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD BUMP THOSE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK UP AND THUS LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
NONETHELESS, A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
APPEARS PROBABLE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHRA WEST OF MEM AND NORTH OF MKL HAS THUS FAR SHOWN NO LIGHTNING,
DESPITED SOME CLOUD TOP ICE EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY. IN ANY CASE,
THIS CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT EITHER MEM OR MKL
TERMINALS DIRECTLY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS,
DAYTIME CUMULUS AND LIMITED (10 PERCENT OR LESS) CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50%, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(40% TO 60%) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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