941
FXUS64 KMEG 112351 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR
SO. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 TO 70 PERCENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY IS ON DISPLAY THIS MONDAY WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH A VERY THIN
STRATUS DECK MOVING OVER THE MID-SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST, WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, USHERING IN INCREASED MOISTURE. AS SUCH,
MORE MENTIONABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH THE
SAME AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW MO WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS BROUGHT IN BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY'SVES OVER THE REGION AND SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES GIVE LIFT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COME FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BROADEN OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES, DECREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SOMETHING TO NOTE, THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THAT BROADENS OVER THE GULF STATES WILL REALLY
DRIVE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND NBM ARE IN A
MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION INTO THE WEEKEND.
NONETHELESS, THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOT AND HUMID DUE TO THE
INCREASED MOISTURE PROFILE. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICES MAY WARRANT
HEAT HEADLINES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BOTTOM LINE, WE'RE
STUCK IN THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEPICTED IN CAM
GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS FOR THIS EVENING. GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED DAYTIME CUMULUS DISSIPATING ON SCHEDULE, AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. HOWEVER, GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARED TO SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN AR THROUGH CENTRAL LA, LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING THAT HIGH-BASED ISOLATED -SRHA MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY THE START OF THE MEM INBOUND
PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION. RAP
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED TSRA POTENTIAL AT 03Z, NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A VCTS GIVEN THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW.
SCATTERED SRHA/TSRA WILL BE A BETTER BET TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TUP
AND MKL, WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. AT THIS TIME,
SHRA/TSRA PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE 00Z
MEM TAF.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. 20 FT
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SUB 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR
NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL RETURNS TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SCATTERED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page