659
FXUS64 KMEG 120415
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 TO 60 PERCENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A FORCING MECHANISM AIDED BY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EARLY
AS MID MORNING. THE GREATEST INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER, THUS THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE THERE. AS MENTIONED, MID TO LATE
MORNING DEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN, BUT PEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL ALLOW
FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO KEEP LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MID TO LATE
MORNING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (~1.75") WHICH IS ENOUGH TO BE A EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER.
SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH THESE PWS COULD HEIGHTEN FLASH
FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER URBANIZED COMMUNITIES AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONCE FRIDAY RETURNS, OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
A RIDGING PATTERN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES AS A FEW SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORABLE IN A
WETTER SOLUTION DELAYING INTENSE HEAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, A FEW
ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS RIDGE BROADENING MUCH QUICKER LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES AND HEATING UP RATHER QUICKLY. A COMMON GROUND BETWEEN
GUIDANCE IS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
PROFILES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED FOR
HEAT HEADLINES TO MAKE THEIR DREADED RETURN. STAY TUNED.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AT
DISCUSSION TIME, EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE TO AID ISOLATED -SHRA, MAINLY NORTH OF MEM INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPEST
MOISTURE NEAR TUP ON TUESDAY. DURINAL TSRA COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
SUCH THAT A PROB30 TSRA REMAINS WARRANTED AT TUP DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
00Z BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AT MKL AND MEM HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. THE PROB30 TSRA
FOR MKL WILL LIKELY BE PULLED IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
MOST OF THE AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN SEVERAL
DAYS, WHICH ELEVATES DRY FUEL CONCERNS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 50% WITH LIGHT WINDS, WHICH KEEPS FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS LOW.
DNM
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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