497
FXUS64 KMEG 121748
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20 TO 60 PERCENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BECOME SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED TODAY AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 F. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SEEMS A BIT
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, THANKS IN NO SMALL PART TO THE SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE WEST. THESE CHANGES ARE EVIDENT FROM THE 12Z
LZK/BNA UPPER AIR PROFILES WHICH SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF
THE 700-500 MB LAYER FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, AN EXPANSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT STRONG CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING WITH WIDEPSREAD 20+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEREFORE,
A FEW STRONGER MULTI- CELLS COULD FORM IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS
UP BEING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED IN MOST CAMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOMORROW, BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHEARED OUT WITH A WEAK UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR, IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMAL,
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODEL GUIDANCE RETAINS THE ABOVE AVERAGE EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WHICH
WOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INTO MULTICELLS CAPABLE
OF PRIMARILY STRONG WINDS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE WARM WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS WHO ARE
HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF REACHING 105+ STARTING TOMORROW.
EVENTUALLY, TROUGHING WILL FILL IN WITH HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A MEDIUM CHANCE (40%-50%) OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE PULLS HIGHER POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST. HEAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND
WHERE HIGHS COULD SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA-WIDE
STARTING THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL VERY LIKELY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS STARTING SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS ARE
LIKELY AS HEAT INDICES BEGIN APPROACHING 105-110 F ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. RIDGING WILL ONLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME,
KEEPING A RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE, HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRAS AND
TSRAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TUP, WHERE A MEDIUM CHANCE (>40%) OF
MVFR OR IFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN BY SUNRISE.
A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR MEM, AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUBTLY TRIGGERS SHRAS AND TSRAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATE THIS EVENING. USED PROB30S TO ACCOUNT THE
ACTIVITY, AS CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOWER THAN EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
MOST OF THE AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, WHICH HAS LED TO ELEVATED DRY FUEL
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
50% ALONGSIDE LIGHT WINDS, WHICH KEEPS WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS LOW.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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