952
FXUS64 KMEG 130514
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY BEGINNING AT 11AM UNTIL
7PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THURSDAY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20 TO 60 PERCENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIP EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL GULF
MOISTURE AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY A REPEAT OF TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY FIRE UP AS EARLY AS MID
TO LATE MORNING. GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL AFTER SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ONE THING TO NOTE, SHEAR IS A BIT ELEVATED CLIMATOLOGICALLY
MAXIMIZING AROUND 25 KTS. THAT IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY. THIS WINDOW OF
MAXIMIZED SHEAR IS NARROW TIME WISE AND GEOGRAPHICALLY, WITH THE
BEST SHEAR BEING ALONG THE AR/MO AND TN/KY BORDERS. THE MAXIMA
DECREASES THE FURTHER EAST CONVECTION PUSHES FROM THE MAIN TROUGH.
NONETHELESS, STORMS CAN ESCALATE QUICKLY, SO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY MAJOR DIFFERENCE FROM TUESDAY, IS A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES IN THE DELTA REGION FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-107
DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, BUT
ESTIMATED TIMING AND LIMITED COVERAGE, EXPECT ONLY TEMPORARY RELIEF
AND A QUICK BOUNCE BACK TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
THE WEEKEND STILL IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WITH MODEL DISCREPANCY, BUT
EVENTUALLY HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND A RIDGING PATTERN WILL REIGN. HEAT
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND WHERE HIGHS COULD SOAR
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA-WIDE STARTING THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
INDICES WILL SOAR INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS STARTING SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY AS HEAT INDICES BEGIN
APPROACHING 105-110 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. RIDGING WILL ONLY
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME, KEEPING A RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-
FREE, HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAFS IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA.
00Z HRRR DEPICTED SCATTERED TSRA CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z
IN THE EASTERN MEM TRACON BUT LAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THIS SCENARIO. MODEL VARIANCES ASIDE, TSRA CHANCES WILL PEAK
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT A
SLIGHTLY LATER SHIFT IN THE ASSOCIATED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE, WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VFR WILL LIKEWISE PREVAIL, BUT HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN IFR CIG AT TUP TOWARD SUNRISE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH HREF IFR CIG PROBABILITIES TOPPING OUT
AROUND 35 PERCENT - SUFFICIENT FOR A PROB30 OR TEMPO INCLUSION.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
MOST OF THE AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, WHICH HAS LED TO ELEVATED DRY FUEL
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
50% ALONGSIDE LIGHT WINDS, WHICH KEEPS WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS LOW.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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