274
FXUS64 KMEG 141707
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, WHERE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE JUST ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
ANOTHER COPY AND PASTE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MOST OF
THE COVERAGE REMAINING ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WON'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS (~40 MPH) AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FOLLOWING SUNSET. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR
SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN.
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. WHILE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED, STILL
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH MS. THIS DOES
BRING UP THE QUESTION OF AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THAT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW OVER A LARGER AREA, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS OR CONVECTION COULD PLAY SPOILER. REGARDLESS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN
TOMORROW.
BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE REGION, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH INTO
NEXT WEEK. WON'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM, BUT
DO THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE LIMITED WITH POPS REMAINING LESS THAN
20%. AS SUCH, THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SORE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE "GOOD" THING WITH THE
DRIER CONDITIONS IS THAT OUR DEW POINT TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES. DO THINK AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY WITH SOME HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105, BUT
EXACT LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE DECIDED ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS TAF'S PROB30S EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT JBR TO AVOID CONFLICT IN MESSAGING IF STORMS DO DEVELOP.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT, WHICH IS A PRECURSOR TO OUR TYPICAL PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AROUND MKL. VFR AGAIN TOMORROW AND ANOTHER CU FIELD.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AT MEM, MKL, AND TUP. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE WILL BE AT TUP BUT NOT ANTICIPATING AS
MUCH COVERAGE AS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ035-036-048-
049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020-021.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD
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