169
FXUS64 KMEG 151127
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 90S TODAY, INCREASING
TO THE UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BOTH TODAY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE, WHERE HEAT INDICES
OF 104 TO 107 PREVAIL.
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE NO RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT THIS HOUR. THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI, BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD SNEAK INTO WEST TENNESSEE. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DOES
BRING UP THE QUESTION OF AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES. ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FRIDAY FROM 11AM-7PM FOR THE SAME
GEOGRAPHICAL REGION AS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS ALONG WITH THE SOME
ADDITION TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD AND LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT GENERALLY A
DRY, HOT AND HUMID FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED. CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT
FAVORS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING AROUND 590 DAM, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. SOME PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL NEED A HEAT ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES CLIMB ABOVE 105, BUT THIS WILL NEED EVALUATED DAILY.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AT TUP. PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO INCLUDE TS MENTION IN THIS TAF SET.
A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG AT MKL AND TUP EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY TS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK,
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL PREVAIL BELOW 50 PERCENT, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS
AND DRYING FINE FUELS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020-021.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ001-002-019-048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC
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