072
FXUS64 KMEG 160435
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 90S SATURDAY, INCREASING TO THE UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH FROM 11AM TO 7PM.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
A 596 DAM RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
ONCE THIS RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, HOT, HUMID AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO EFFECT AT 11 AM SATURDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH
THANKS TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING EXCESS MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR STORY, SO EXPECT MORE HEAT
HEADLINES TO BE ISSUED, THOUGH THE COUNTIES INCLUDED MAY DIFFER
JUST SLIGHTLY.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE NBM HAS PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MEDIUM TO HIGH
RANGE (50% AND 80%, RESPECTIVELY). THOSE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ARE ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ONE POSITIVE
NOTE, IS WE FALL INTO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY, CUTTING OFF
EXCESS GULF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND LOWER THE CHANCES OF EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS BEING NEEDED. THIS
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON A DAILY BASIS, BUT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES TO BE NEEDED. WITH EACH DAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SO ISOLATED AND POPS SO LOW
(20% OR LESS) THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP OR
RESPITE FROM THE HEAT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOESN'T LOOK TO BUDGE TOO MUCH UNTIL AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF COOL DOWN, BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. LONG TERM
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE MID-SOUTH
FROM THE PLAINS HINTING AT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR
OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCE (LESS
THAN 15%) OF A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANY TAF SITE.
WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, DUE
TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND; MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 50% WITH LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS DO DRY OUT A BIT
STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING TO HOT AND DRY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>003-019-
020-048>051-088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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