330
FXUS64 KMEG 161711
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MID-WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL
CREEP UP EACH DAY AND BY TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DO LITTLE IN THE WAY TO RELIEVE THE
HEAT. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
THOUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NOW, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE WITH BEST TIMING STILL OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
KRM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHRAS/TSRAS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED AT MKL/TUP LATE
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM
AVIATION...SJM
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