752
FXUS64 KMEG 170500
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING AS HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SATURDAY EVENING UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A 595 DM HIGH CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. 850 MB
ANALYSIS YIELDS PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATE EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THESE
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND MAY LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST IN LATER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM CAMS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-40 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE, RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MKL AND TUP PRODUCING
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TUP. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE 06Z TAF SET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC
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