425
FXUS64 KMEG 171645
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
A 594 DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD A LITTLE EACH DAY. TEMPS AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF YESTERDAY
AREAWIDE. CU HAS STARTED TO POP AND A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS TREKKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF SOME STORMS AS WELL. AS A RESULT ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NEED
AN ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH (20-35%). SEVERE CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL
WITH LIMITED SHEAR FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONT
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY
KNOCK HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS DEEP INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT KMKL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTRODUCED A TEMPO
BETWEEN 7-11Z. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE IN TAF.
KRM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...KRM
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