567
FXUS64 KMEG 012302
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
602 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
- EXPECT A PLEASANT AND DRY LABOR DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES.
- A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL LABOR DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
SEPTEMBER, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
SOMEWHAT OF AN UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL REMAIN IN
THIS WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
AS SUCH, DO NOT EXPECT FOR THIS TO BE A WASH-OUT BY ANY MEANS FOR
THE MID-SOUTH, BUT THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
POPS (20 TO 30%) FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE (40 TO 60%) DOES APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY, THE LACK OF ANY TRUE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT OR FORCING WILL LIKELY PLAY SPOILER TO ANY STORMS
INTENSIFYING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE MORE LIMITED SIDE OF
THINGS, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ONLY REACHING UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH. ALL IN ALL THOUGH,
EXPECT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND TO JUST BELOW-NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER SHOT OF "COOLER" CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MANAGEABLE 50S. DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND
THAT, FORECAST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BUT THE OVERALL TREND
APPEARS TO BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
MAINLY JUST ANOTHER WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MEM TOMORROW EVENING. DUE TO A
DRY AIRMASS IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY RAIN WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE
GROUND. NEVERTHELESS INCLUDED VCSH AT MEM TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
OVERPERFORMING SHOWERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. ANY CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT. AMD NOT SKED AT TUP FOR MISSING
METAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MINRH VALUES IN
THE 30 TO 40% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND 40 TO 50% RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PROVIDE SOME BRIEF RESPITE
TO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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