663
FXUS64 KMEG 020400
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
- A DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING, LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE REGION. AFTER A QUIET
NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL IMPINGE
FROM THE EAST AND MUSTER UP JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OR LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN
ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR. PW VALUES ARE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM
(1-1.5") COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ANY ACCUMULATION AMOUNT IS WELCOMED, BUT THIS
CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT BUSTER.
VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPS CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER SIDE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT WIDELY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA
KEEPING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. PEAK POPS (40-60%) ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AND CHANCES LOWERING TO 20-40% THEREAFTER. DESPITE A RISE IN POPS,
PROBABILITIES OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE ONLY 30-60% STRETCHING
IN A LINE FROM JACKSON, TN TO OXFORD, MS AND EASTWARD.
A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ROTATE THAT INVERTED TROUGH
OUT OF THE AREA AND SQUASH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW
SHORTLY BEHIND IT WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
RAISE PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS QUICKLY AND
WE WILL SETTLE INTO A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS FOR A COMFORTABLE FEEL.
WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEYOND THEN,
MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE. THE CPC MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER HAS
THE MID-SOUTH IN EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN INTRODUCING VCSH A BIT EARLIER.
MAINLY JUST ANOTHER WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MEM TOMORROW EVENING. DUE TO A
DRY AIRMASS IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY RAIN WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE
GROUND. NEVERTHELESS INCLUDED VCSH AT MEM TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
OVERPERFORMING SHOWERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. ANY CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT. AMD NOT SKED AT TUP FOR MISSING
METAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH'S AND INCREASED WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD
CURB FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MOISTURE PULL
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
WETTING RAIN TO FOLLOW. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS COULD RETURN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS
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